FluPortal.org

Last fall, we took a look at how news organizations were approaching the question what to call the new influenza pandemic — “swine flu” or “H1N1”? Nine months into the outbreak, it’s time to revisit this debate, and this time we’re taking it to the streets — the virtual streets of Google search terms. Using Google Insights for Search, we can see how “H1N1” and “swine flu” have been trending over the last year.

And by a clear margin, swine flu is the winner and champion. Last April, when the outbreak first appeared in Mexico and the United States, “swine flu” dominated the public consciousness, news reports, and our Google searches. The huge volume of these early searches gives “swine flu” a substantial victory in total number of searches over time.

But by the chart below, you can see that “H1N1” picked up the pace and essentially pulled even once the initial wave of “swine flu” searches died down. And in recent months, as the second wave of the pandemic lessened, “H1N1″ is occasionally the more popular search term.

There are also geographic differences in the popularity of the two search terms. Below are maps for “swine flu” in red and “H1N1″ in blue. The darker the color, the more common the search. Between April 09 and January 2010, West Virgina, Utah and Maine produced the most searches for “swine flu”. During the same period, the upper Midwest led the way with the most “H1N1” searches.

Another interesting set of data to look at is the differences in related search terms. “Swine flu” searches have been more often associated to finding information about the symptoms. “H1N1″ searches, on the other hand, are more likely to be about vaccine information.

This kind of search data can provide an interesting window into both the rhetorical trends of media and how we talk about the pandemic. Perhaps we tend to use “H1N1” in more medical and scientific contexts –- the research, the pandemic data, and the vaccine. In contrast, “swine flu” may have been the choice in describing the illness, its traits, and the experiences of those who caught the flu.

You can do your own search term analysis at Google Insights for Search.

Wordle created from Obama’s proclamation

If you were in any doubt that this week is National Influenza Vaccine Week, President Obama has issued a proclamation to that effect:

This week presents a window of opportunity for us to prevent a possible third wave of H1N1 flu in the United States. [...]

NOW, THEREFORE, I, BARACK OBAMA, President of the United States of America, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, do hereby proclaim the week of January 10-16, 2010, as National Influenza Vaccination Week. I encourage all Americans to observe this week by getting the H1N1 flu vaccine if they have not yet done so, and by asking their families, friends, and co-workers to do the same.

The full text is here.

In yesterday’s CDC press briefing, Ann Schuchat, Director of CDC’s National Center for Immunizations and Respiratory Diseases, gave a post-holiday roundup of the latest H1N1 developments.

Here’s the short course: The vaccine is now available to pretty much everyone who wants it all across the country. So far, the US hasn’t decided to return/donate/sell any of its vaccine supply as some European countries are doing. Instead, it’s focusing on the upcoming (10-16 January) National Influenza Vaccine Week (NIVW). NIVW is another big push to encourage Americans to get H1N1 and seasonal-flu shots. It has its own schedule of activities, informational materials, a media toolkit, and web tools like ecards and badges.

Why continue pushing the H1N1 vaccine when, as Schuchat announced, “we’re seeing drops in laboratory confirmed hospitalizations and deaths”? Because there’s also “activity increasing in a few other indicators.” She clarified:

We still have more activity than we usually have this time of year, though it’s certainly much below where it was several weeks ago. All the virus that we’re seeing right now is the H1N1 virus. We haven’t yet seen the emergence of seasonal flu strains in any numbers at all. We saw a slight uptick in the last week’s reporting in the influenza-like illness visits to the doctors or emergency departments. That can sometimes happen right around Christmas, so we don’t know if that will persist. We also saw an uptick in pneumonia or influenza deaths in this past week. And that isn’t something that we necessarily see around the Christmas holiday.

Minnesota was one state that reported increased influenza-like illness last week.

What CDC is afraid of, of course, is a third wave of H1N1. To drive the point home, Schuchat showed this graph of pandemic mortality in 1957:

[CDC / usable on your site]

She went on to say:

This is really a reminder of why we are saying that we need to remain vigilant. [...] [I]f you look at this graph, the bottom part of that curve, you know, the — there’s the camel hump and then it comes down to that valley. Well, that’s where we are right now in that valley. We don’t know what’s going to happen over the next several weeks or months. But in 1957, this essentially gave the all clear whistle in that December/January time period. They had vaccine, but they didn’t encourage its use and yet they did go on to see that increase in mortality.

National Influenza Vaccine Week launches on Sunday. You can check here for NIVW activities in your area.

Several notable public figures have received an H1N1 vaccine recently: President Obama, WHO Director General Margaret Chan, and HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius all rolled up their sleeves towards the end of December. Sebelius got hers just before promoting the vaccine during four college-football bowl games. You can see her (embeddable) ad here. This is a slightly longer version of it that includes Sebelius smiling while receiving the injection:

[HHS]

While the US government continues to push the vaccine actively, the recent news from Canada and a number of European countries is the surplus vaccine supply. Even some developing countries slated to receive donated vaccine from WHO appear to be reassessing the quantity they need.

[courosa / cc (usable on your site) / Flickr]

Two polls released just before the holidays give some new figures on H1N1 vaccination rates in the US: one by the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) and one by the National H1N1 Flu Survey (NHFS). The HSPH poll was conducted on 16-17 December, 2009. The NHFS poll was conducted on 6-12 December, 2009.

The HSPH results include the following:

The NHFS results include these numbers:

[HeffTech / cc (usable on your site) / Flickr]

A new article in Biotechnology Journal proposes a method of producing influenza vaccine that’s more efficient than the traditional egg-based technology. It uses “virus-like particles” (VLPs) created in insect cells to form the basis of a vaccine. (This technology is apparently already approved for vaccines against some other diseases.)

The article was written by scientists in Austria who produced a VLP vaccine against H1N1 that, in mice at least, triggered a robust immune response. If this type of vaccine becomes a viable option for humans, its production speed would help public-health authorities respond more quickly to flu pandemics and viral mutations.

Veteran flu journalist Maryn McKenna cautioned recently, however, that emerging vaccine technologies like this one “remain in the realm of basic science or in preclinical testing” for influenza. In other words: flu-vaccine production will probably still rely on chicken eggs in the immediate future.

[el patojo / cc (usable on your site) / Flickr]

Did you know that the CDC offers podcasts on H1N1? You can find them by clicking here and then selecting “H1N1″ in the “By Topic” menu. You can also go to the search page and type “H1N1″ into the “description” box to pull up a slightly different list.

The subjects of the podcasts range from underreporting of H1N1 cases to mixing Tamiflu with liquids for your kids to an explanation of the delay in vaccine production.

Here’s a recent one promoting the H1N1 vaccine. (Click on the “play” arrow to start it.)

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.